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Web version of a presentation given by Dr Stuart Parkinson, SGR, at the Network for Peace AGM, London, 10 February 2007
Two key environmental dimensions of war:
Conflict over environmental resources
Conflict causes environmental impacts
The two can combine and cause a cyclical effect - conflict causing environmental impacts can damage the resource base and lead to further conflict
Roots of conflict often include environmental factors (although these often combine with other factors such as race, religion, ideology, poverty, population growth)
Environmental factors can be basic resources (generally scarce locally):
Water - eg Israel, Jordan, Syria in 1950s/60s, also in Africa
Fertile land (including farmland and forests) - numerous recent cases, especially internally in countries in South America, SE Asia, Africa
Environmental factors can be resources for industrial society (generally scarce globally, and thus have a high monetary value):
Fossil fuels, especially oil
Middle East - Gulf war (1991; Kuwait has 4th largest oil reserves) and Iraq war (2003 until present; Iraq has 2nd largest oil reserves) - although Western governments deny that oil was a factor, many commentators have argued this was important
civil war in Sudan (not Darfur) (~1983-2005)
uprisings and eventual independence of East Timor from Indonesia (mainly 1990s up to 2002)
unrest over many years in Nigeria
Metal ores & other minerals
copper, zinc, diamonds (and others) - civil war in Democratic Republic of Congo (~1998-2003) - 7 other countries became involved in conflict (Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, Chad, Namibia, Zimbabwe) - estimated 3.8 million people died
diamonds, gold - civil war in Sierra Leone (~1991-2002)
References: SBS (2004); Nur (2006); Gleick (2006); Wikipedia (2007a)
Annual discovery of new oil reserves peaked in 1960s. The Association for Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) argues that the peak of annual production will occur within the next few years (or has possibly just occurred), with global demand outstripping production soon after. Prices are likely to quickly rise, and the current price shocks are argued to be an early indication of that. (The oil industry argues that the oil peak is still decades away but there is growing scepticism of their figures).
Remaining global oil reserves concentrated in small areas - eg Middle East states hold ~65% of reserves - and there is growing concern that they have exaggerated the size of their reserves.
Domestic consumption outstripping domestic production in major countries
Projected growth in consumption is huge
| Country |
Actual Production 2004 |
Actual Consumption 2004 |
% import 2004 |
Projected Consumption 2025 (baseline) |
% increase from 2004 |
| USA |
3,200 |
7,600 |
58% |
9,500 |
25% |
| China |
1,300 |
2,300 |
43% |
4,800 |
109% |
| India |
300 |
900 |
67% |
1,500 |
67% |
| World |
30,300 |
30,100 |
- |
40,500 |
35% |
Table: Oil production and consumption figures - selected
NB Production and consumption figures in million barrels
With the oil supply concentrated in a politically unstable region of the world and the possibility of demand exceeding supply in the near future - economic problems are likely, increasing the possibility of conflict.
We urgently need to move away from our high dependence on oil - even George W. Bush has acknowledged the need to break "the oil addiction" in his 2006 and 2007 State of the Union addresses
References: Energy Information Administration (2006); ASPO (2006); Nur (2006); Wikipedia (2007b); The White House (2007)
Environmental impacts of war are frequently under-reported - can have major knock effects on human population
War can jeopardise, for example:
water supplies - damage to clean water and sanitation infrastructure can lead to water shortages and spread of disease
food supplies - agriculture can be curtailed through unexploded ordnance (UXO), eg landmines; soil pollution from ordnance; and food distribution networks can be disrupted - all can contribute to food shortages and famine
air quality - fires resulting from conflict can pollute air
Military forces often target infrastructure to intentionally create the problems above
War also causes major damage and destruction of wildlife and whole ecosystems
Can also contribute to climate change through accelerated burning of fossil fuels by military forces
Reference: Majeed (2004)
Detailed assessments carried out by UNEP (other more recent conflicts still to be assessed in detail)
Damage to infrastructure allowed disease and ill-health to spread - tens of thousands of Iraqis died of the health effects of the war
Damage to water purification facilities (and related electricity supplies) caused major shortages of clean water
Chemical/ biological/ nuclear weapons plants bombed - toxic/ radioactive releases may be a cause of Gulf War syndrome
Damage to sewerage plants caused serious pollution
Oil well fires - more than 600 wells set ablaze, some burning for 9 months - smoke blocked sun - temperature fell by 10C; approx 1000 people died due to acrid smoke; 300 million tonnes CO2 released contributing to climate change
Oil polluted groundwater - 60 million barrels leaked into ground poisoning 40% of groundwater (Kuwait has less water per head than any other country)
Oil spills into sea - at least 6 million barrels of oil leaked into sea causing largest ever oil slick - devastated local bird, mammal, fish populations - prawn fisheries decimated
Landmines and other UXO, eg cluster bombs - 1.6 million landmines laid by Iraqi forces in Kuwait; approx 5% of bombs do not explode on impact (higher % in desert) - many people killed/ injuries
Depleted Uranium (DU) - super-dense metal used in armour piercing weapons - approx 290 tonnes spread across Gulf - source of low-level radioactivity and toxicity
Damage to desert ecology - obvious bomb damage, but also movements of armoured vehicles broke up fragile soil surface - approx 50% of Kuwait's land area damaged
References: UNEP (2003); Additional info from: New Scientist (2003); Friends of the Earth (2003); Medact (2002)
Oil consumption by military forces
USA - 133 million barrels in 2005
2% of total USA oil consumption
similar to Sweden's total consumption
only 2 out of 56 African countries consume more oil than US military
true figure could be as much as double due to accounting errors overseas
UK - 7 million barrels in 2004
1% of total UK oil consumption
similar to Namibia's total consumption
Emissions of CO2 from military forces
USA - ~60Mt in 2005
1% of total USA emissions
similar to Finland's total emissions
UK - ~5Mt in 2005
1% of total UK emissions
similar to Senegal's total emissions
Large military forces are making a significant contribution to the depletion of oil resources and to climate change - both are likely to increase the risk of conflict which military forces are claimed to be there to prevent!
Climate change could increase the risk of conflict, especially in developing countries:
Water shortages will increase with rising temperatures (and with population increases) - number of people living in "water-stressed" areas expected to rise from 1.7 billion in 2000 to 5 billion in 2025
Sea-level rise and increased storminess will increase risk of flood damage, especially to heavily populated coastal areas - tens of millions more people are likely to be affected by 2080s
Disruption to agriculture is likely
Together these factors could lead to a large increase in numbers of "environmental refugees"
References: Military consumption/ CO2 emissions figures estimated by SGR based data from DESC (2006) & MoD (2006). Additional info from: IPCC (2001), Karbuz (2006), UNEP (2007)
Urgent need to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, especially oil, through:
lifestyle change - eg greater use of public transport, using smaller cars, car-sharing, holidaying closer to home
energy efficiency technologies - eg more fuel-efficient vehicles, better home insulation
renewable energy technologies - wind, solar, biomass, water (hydro, wave, tidal), geothermal
government policies and measures to support these changes, eg eco-taxes, carbon trading, regulation, R&D support
strengthening of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, especially binding targets on the biggest emitters (the largest being the USA) based on "Contraction and Convergence" principles
Urgent need to stem the global flow of weapons, especially small arms in poorer countries whose environmental resources are under stress and conflict may occur
need strengthening of UN programme of action on eradicating illegal small arms
need countries to agree a UN arms trade treaty
USA, which has highest levels of small arms in private hands and is world's largest arms exporter, is resisting these efforts
Urgent need to support post-conflict reconstruction and conflict prevention activities
Only receives a small amount of funding
In 2005, the world spent over $1.1 trillion ($1,100,000,000,000) on its military forces - continuing a rising trend. Diverting at least some of this spending could help achieve the aims above, reducing the likelihood of conflict.
Reducing dependence on military forces as a way of dealing with international problems will also help reduce their carbon emissions!
The power of corporations, especially military corporations, with their ability to lobby for favourable policies needs to be curbed.
References: United Nations (2006, 2007); Control Arms Campaign (2007); SIPRI (2006)
it is key to work closely across the different issues. Environment and development campaigners are starting to work together on issues such as climate change – more alliances are needed between peace campaigners and environment and development groups
(NB all URLs correct as of 10/02/07)
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