Guns and Global Warming: War, Peace and the Environment

Notes of a presentation given by Dr Stuart Parkinson, SGR, at the Network for Peace AGM, London, 10 February 2007
 

Main themes

  • Two key environmental dimensions of war:
    • Conflict over environmental resources
    • Conflict causes environmental impacts
  • The two can combine and cause a cyclical effect - conflict causing environmental impacts can damage the resource base and lead to further conflict
 

Conflict over environmental resources

  • Roots of conflict often include environmental factors (although these often combine with other factors such as race, religion, ideology, poverty, population growth)
  • Environmental factors can be basic resources (generally scarce locally):
    • Water - eg Israel, Jordan, Syria in 1950s/60s, also in Africa
    • Fertile land (including farmland and forests) - numerous recent cases, especially internally in countries in South America, SE Asia, Africa
  • Environmental factors can be resources for industrial society (generally scarce globally, and thus have a high monetary value):
    • Fossil fuels, especially oil
      • Middle East - Gulf war (1991; Kuwait has 4th largest oil reserves) and Iraq war (2003 until present; Iraq has 2nd largest oil reserves) - although Western governments deny that oil was a factor, many commentators have argued this was important
      • civil war in Sudan (not Darfur) (~1983-2005)
      • uprisings and eventual independence of East Timor from Indonesia (mainly 1990s up to 2002)
      • unrest over many years in Nigeria
    • Metal ores & other minerals
      • copper, zinc, diamonds (and others) - civil war in Democratic Republic of Congo (~1998-2003) - 7 other countries became involved in conflict (Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, Chad, Namibia, Zimbabwe) - estimated 3.8 million people died
      • diamonds, gold - civil war in Sierra Leone (~1991-2002)

References: SBS (2004); Nur (2006); Gleick (2006); Wikipedia (2007a)

 

Case study: Oil and future potential for conflict

  • Annual discovery of new oil reserves peaked in 1960s. The Association for Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) argues that the peak of annual production will occur within the next few years (or has possibly just occurred), with global demand outstripping production soon after. Prices are likely to quickly rise, and the current price shocks are argued to be an early indication of that. (The oil industry argues that the oil peak is still decades away but there is growing scepticism of their figures).
  • Remaining global oil reserves concentrated in small areas - eg Middle East states hold ~65% of reserves - and there is growing concern that they have exaggerated the size of their reserves.
  • Domestic consumption outstripping domestic production in major countries
  • Projected growth in consumption is huge

 

Key changes needed

  • Urgent need to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, especially oil, through:
    • lifestyle change - eg greater use of public transport, using smaller cars, car-sharing, holidaying closer to home
    • energy efficiency technologies - eg more fuel-efficient vehicles, better home insulation
    • renewable energy technologies - wind, solar, biomass, water (hydro, wave, tidal), geothermal
    • government policies and measures to support these changes, eg eco-taxes, carbon trading, regulation, R&D support
    • strengthening of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, especially binding targets on the biggest emitters (the largest being the USA) based on "Contraction and Convergence" principles
  • Urgent need to stem the global flow of weapons, especially small arms in poorer countries whose environmental resources are under stress and conflict may occur
    • need strengthening of UN programme of action on eradicating illegal small arms
    • need countries to agree a UN arms trade treaty
    • USA, which has highest levels of small arms in private hands and is world's largest arms exporter, is resisting these efforts
  • Urgent need to support post-conflict reconstruction and conflict prevention activities
    • Only receives a small amount of funding
  • In 2005, the world spent over $1.1 trillion ($1,100,000,000,000) on its military forces - continuing a rising trend. Diverting at least some of this spending could help achieve the aims above, reducing the likelihood of conflict.
  • Reducing dependence on military forces as a way of dealing with international problems will also help reduce their carbon emissions!
  • The power of corporations, especially military corporations, with their ability to lobby for favourable policies needs to be curbed.

References: United Nations (2006, 2007); Control Arms Campaign (2007); SIPRI (2006)

 

For campaigners

  • it is key to work closely across the different issues. Environment and development campaigners are starting to work together on issues such as climate change – more alliances are needed between peace campaigners and environment and development groups

 

References

(NB all URLs correct as of 10/02/07)

  1. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) (2007). http://www.peakoil.net/
  2. Control Arms Campaign (2007). http://www.controlarms.org/index.htm
  3. Defense Energy Support Center (DESC) (2006). Factbook FY 2005 (28th edition). http://www.desc.dla.mil/DCM/Files/Fact05Revised.pdf
  4. Energy Information Administration (2006). International data. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html
  5. Friends of the Earth (2003). War in Iraq: why Friends of the Earth is opposed. February 13. http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/briefings/war_iraq.pdf
  6. Gleick P. H. (2006). Water Conflict Chronology. Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security. October. http://worldwater.org/chronology.html
  7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001). Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm
  8. Karbuz S. (2006). The US military oil consumption. http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.html
  9. Majeed A. (2004). The Impact of Militarism on the Environment. Physicians for Global Survival (Canada). http://www.pgs.ca/updir/militarism_environment_web.pdf
  10. Medact (2002). Collateral Damage: the health and environmental costs of war on Iraq. http://www.medact.org/content/wmd_and_conflict/Medact_Iraq_report%20(1).pdf
  11. Ministry of Defence (MoD) (2006). Sustainable Development Annual Report 2005. http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/AboutDefence/WhatWeDo/HealthandSafety/DSC/SustainableDevelopmentAnnualReport2005.htm
  12. New Scientist (2003). Future looks bleak for Iraq's fragile environment. March 15, p12-13. http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn3491-future-looks-bleak-for-iraqs-fragile-environment.html
  13. Nur A. (2006). Oil Future and War Now: A Grim Earth-Sciences Point of View. Stanford University, California. http://srb.stanford.edu/nur/oil_war.pdf
  14. SBS (2004).The World Guide. http://sbs.com.au/theworldnews/Worldguide/
  15. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2006). Recent trends in military expenditure. http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex
  16. United Nations (2006). Small Arms Review Conference. http://www.un.org/events/smallarms2006/index.html
  17. United Nations (2007). UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/
  18. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2003). Desk study on the environment in Iraq. April. http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/Iraq_DS.pdf
  19. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2007). Global Environment Outlook (GEO) Data Portal. http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/
  20. The White House (2007). State of the Union addresses. http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/2007/index.html
  21. Wikipedia (2007a). Second Congo War. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War
  22. Wikipedia (2007b). Hubbert peak theory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil