This report analyses the growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by the expansion of the men's football World Cup Finals from 2026 onwards, induced emissions from related high-carbon sponsorship deals, and the likely climate risks at the 2026 tournament.
The main findings are:
- The expansion of the World Cup Finals from 32 to 48 teams – from 2026 onwards – will lead to a huge increase in GHG emissions. In particular, we estimate air transport emissions will rise by between 160% and 325% for each of the three tournaments in 2026, 2030 and 2034 – compared with average levels for the recent Finals.
- We estimate that the 2026 World Cup Finals in North America will be responsible for at least 9.0 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), the Spanish-led 2030 Finals will lead to 6.1 million tCO2e, and the 2034 Finals in Saudi Arabia will be responsible for 8.6 million tCO2e. These levels are increases over the previous finals of 92% for 2026, 29% for 2030, and 82% for 2034.
- Following recent academic research on the increased global heating potential of air travel, we further estimate that the tournament emissions could be 40%-70% higher than our basic estimates.
- We estimate that the FIFA-Aramco sponsorship deal for the men’s World Cup Finals in 2026 will induce additional emissions of about 30 million tCO2e due to increased sales for the fossil fuel company.
- The Climate Emergency Risk Assessment covering heat stress, flooding and extreme weather risks across all 16 stadiums hosting matches at the 2026 World Cup finds that:
- Half (8 out of 16) of the 2026 World Club stadiums require immediate environmental intervention, with 4 deemed to require critical intervention.
- Six of the stadiums face extreme heat stress (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) >26.7°C/ 80°F).
Authors: Dr Stuart Parkinson, Samran Ali, and Freddie Daley
Publication date: July 2025
Number of pages: 25
Publishers: New Weather Institute (NWI), Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR), Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), and Cool Down: the Sport for Climate Action Network
