Now that the government has confirmed (in case there was anyone left who doubted it) that it wants new nuclear power stations built in the UK, Stuart Parkinson asks whether there will be enough engineers and scientists to deliver them?
Article from July 2006
To start to answer this question we have to take a look at present state of the nuclear industry. Much of the current workforce joined in the 1960s and 70s, when funding and public support were at their peak. Consequently a large proportion of workers are now approaching retirement. Meanwhile, only one new nuclear power station has been built in the UK in the last 18 years, while seven have been shut down and are going through decommissioning – a process which will take many decades. Over the next ten years nine more plants are planned to close [1]. So we have a shrinking workforce with limited experience of new-build and a rapidly growing burden of decommissioning. To say the least, this is quite a challenging basis upon which to attempt to build at least six large new nuclear power stations of a type not yet commissioned anywhere in the world.
So it must be time to start recruiting new blood. The nuclear industry has for some time had difficulty attracting enough skilled staff, but it claims that all that would change if an ‘exciting’ new build programme were announced. Nevertheless, professional bodies such as the Institute of Physics continue to express concern about skills shortages, as discussed in a report by the Trade and Industry Select Committee published in mid-July [2]. Indeed, Cogent – an organisation which monitors the skills base for the nuclear and some other related sectors – noted in a report published earlier this year [3] that, despite a large expansion of students entering higher education, the numbers enrolling for courses relevant to its sectors is actually falling. For example, between 1999 and 2003, enrolments for mechanical engineering fell 8% while those for chemistry fell 15%. Declines of this sort have impacted on the number of university courses and departments now operating in these areas. Hence, since 1997, we have seen the closure of 18 physics departments and 28 chemistry departments, with potentially more at risk. What’s even more disturbing for these sectors is that only 6.5% of suitably qualified graduates actually take up employment with them.
At this point, it’s worth taking a look at some of the competition. The renewable energy sector – including wind, solar, tidal etc – requires skilled workers in many of the areas that the nuclear industry does, especially civil, electrical and mechanical engineering and physics. And the renewables sector is growing fast, not least because it doesn’t suffer from level of public concern that nuclear does. The Department of Trade and Industry estimated, before the energy review, that employment in this area could expand from the current 8,000 jobs to up to 35,000 by 2020 [4]. Added to this, the energy review included a wide range of measures to further encourage the expansion of renewable energy. So there’s a real question about whether nuclear will be able to compete.
Perhaps an even more critical question is: should the nuclear industry be competing with the renewable sector for skilled labour? One serious concern about new nuclear build has been the way it could draw away resources from the fledging (and more promising) renewable industry. Skilled labour is probably the most limited resource. But with the muscle of the nuclear sector – with its influential supporters in industry, the trade unions, the professional institutions and government keen to demonstrate that it can deliver – it seems likely it will decide to try to squeeze such competition.
But, of course, the nuclear industry will be helped by pulling in some expertise from abroad. With the design of the new plants likely to be either French or American, this seems inevitable. So, will this plug their skills gap? Well, with other countries, such as the USA, France, Japan and China, embarking on building new nuclear plants there is real concern about global competition for skilled workers in this sector.
A further source of competition for labour is from those organisations which regulate the nuclear industry, such as the Nuclear Installations Inspectorate. It is extremely important that they have a sufficient supply of high quality staff to maintain and improve safety, security and environmental standards.
And then, of course, there will be some competition from the UK’s nuclear weapons facilities. The Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston, for example, is currently being expanded [5, 6].
There’s also one other key issue. With a rapid influx of new workers, including some from abroad, will we be able to stop any with hostile intent? The question is far more than idle speculation. With the revelation that Al-Qaeda sympathisers were amongst those recently applying to join MI5 [7] and fundamentalist terrorists known to have considered nuclear power plants as potential targets [8, 9], will the industry be able to ensure it doesn’t take on dangerous insiders?
So the UK nuclear industry has a dwindling workforce with a massively expanding workload. To rectify this it has to enrol new talent rapidly from a shrinking pool of skilled workers, facing stiff competition, not least from more publicly acceptable industries. And it has to screen out potential terrorists.
Will it succeed? That depends crucially on the up and coming generation of engineers and scientists. They could choose the nuclear route, working in a centralised and controversial industry, or they could choose to work, for example, in the renewables sector which has a diverse mix of technologies, smaller and more flexible companies, and very wide public support. The choice is theirs.
Dr Stuart Parkinson
Director, Scientists for Global Responsibility (SGR)
References
[1] Sustainable Development Commission (2006). An introduction to nuclear power – science, technology and UK policy context. In: The role of nuclear power in a low carbon economy. http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/
[2] House of Commons Trade and Industry Committee (2006). New nuclear? Examining the issues. http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/trade_and_industry.cfm
[3] Cogent Sector Skills Council Ltd. (2006). An Assessment of Current Provision for the Nuclear Industry. http://www.cogent-ssc.com/
[4] Department of Trade and Industry (2004). Renewable Supply Chain Gap Analysis. http://www.dti.gov.uk/
[5] Edwards R. (2003). Britain boosts nuke research. New Scientist. 24 May.
[6] Annual Reports and other material on the website of the Atomic Weapons Establishment. http://www.awe.co.uk/
[7] BBC News online (2006). Al-Qaeda ‘bid to infiltrate MI5’. 3 July. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5142908.stm
[8] BBC News online (2002). Philadelphia probes package bomb. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/1987983.stm
[9] Rimmer A. (2005). Nuke bomb ‘plot’. Sunday Mirror. 16th October. http://www.sundaymirror.co.uk